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Active Conflict Theaters

Escalation Index scores updated daily ยท Select any theater for COG analysis, SITREPs, and forecasts

10
Theaters Tracked
4
Major Wars
85
Highest Score (Gaza)
May 26
Last Updated
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ
78
โ†‘
Major War
Russiaโ€“Ukraine War
๐Ÿ“ Europe ยท Russia vs Ukraine + NATO support
Deep strikes, attritional frontlines, and nuclear signaling define the theater heading into summer 2026.
Active โ€” Escalating
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๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ธ
85
โ†’
Major War
Israelโ€“Gaza War
๐Ÿ“ Mideast ยท Israel vs Hamas / Islamic Jihad
Urban warfare ongoing across northern Gaza. Humanitarian corridor negotiations stalled. Civilian casualties mount.
Active โ€” High Intensity
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท
71
โ†‘
Active
Iranโ€“Israel Shadow War
๐Ÿ“ Mideast ยท Iran + Proxies vs Israel + Coalition
Proxy escalation via Hezbollah and Houthi networks elevated. Direct strike threshold remains contested.
Active โ€” Proxy / Covert
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๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฉ
74
โ†‘
Major War
Sudan Civil War
๐Ÿ“ Africa ยท SAF vs RSF (Rapid Support Forces)
RSF consolidating control across Darfur. SAF losing strategic depth. Over 8M displaced โ€” worst crisis on Earth.
Active โ€” Humanitarian Crisis
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๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฒ
68
โ†“
Active
Myanmar Civil War
๐Ÿ“ Asia ยท Military Junta vs EAOs + PDF
Ethnic armed organizations control large swaths of border territory. Junta's COG under sustained pressure.
Active โ€” Junta losing ground
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๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช
75
โ†“
Major War
Yemen Civil War
๐Ÿ“ Mideast ยท Houthis vs Yemeni Government + Coalition
Houthi Red Sea operations disrupting global shipping lanes. Coalition strikes ongoing. Ceasefire talks fragile.
Active โ€” Red Sea Flashpoint
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๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ช
68
โ†’
Active
Sahel Insurgency
๐Ÿ“ Africa ยท JNIM / ISGS vs Junta Governments + Wagner
AQ and IS affiliates expanding territorial control across Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger after French withdrawal.
Active โ€” Expanding
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๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡น
55
โ†‘
Active
Haiti Gang War
๐Ÿ“ Americas ยท Gang Coalitions vs Government + MSS
Gang control exceeds 80% of Port-au-Prince. Kenyan-led MSS stabilization mission facing severe constraints.
Active โ€” State Collapse Risk
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๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฒ
30
โ†’
Frozen
Nagorno-Karabakh
๐Ÿ“ Europe ยท Azerbaijan vs Armenia (post-2023 offensive)
Azerbaijani offensive concluded 2023. Armenian population displaced. Diplomatic normalization ongoing.
Frozen โ€” Post-conflict
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๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ
50
โ†‘
Monitoring
Taiwan Strait Tensions
๐Ÿ“ Asia ยท PRC vs Taiwan + US security guarantee
PLA exercises and incursions into ADIZ at elevated frequency. US arms transfers accelerating. No kinetic action.
Monitoring โ€” Gray Zone ops
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