Middle East · Israel vs Hamas / Islamic Jihad
As of mid-2026, the Israel–Gaza War continues with intense fighting concentrated in northern Gaza, particularly around Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahia. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), led by the 36th Division, have established a stronghold in northern Gaza, utilizing advanced drone and artillery capabilities to disrupt Hamas' command and control. The IDF's center of gravity remains the destruction of Hamas' military infrastructure and leadership.
Hamas, centered in southern Gaza, has shifted tactics, employing guerrilla warfare and suicide drones to counter Israeli advances. Their center of gravity is maintaining morale and operational capability through asymmetric tactics and maintaining supply lines from Egypt.
The most likely course of action (MLCOA) is a prolonged stalemate, with both sides unable to achieve decisive victories. Israel aims to degrade Hamas' capabilities, while Hamas seeks to sustain resistance and draw international attention.
A key indicator to watch is the effectiveness of Hamas' new suicide drone attacks. If these prove successful in disrupting IDF operations, they could shift the balance of power, necessitating a reevaluation of Israel's strategy. Conversely, if Israel develops countermeasures, it could lead to a further degradation of Hamas' operational capabilities.
Israel COG: Military superiority and political legitimacy.
Critical Capabilities: Advanced air and naval power, intelligence superiority, and strong allied support.
Critical Requirements: Maintaining public and international support, sustaining operational tempo, and effective counterinsurgency tactics.
Critical Vulnerabilities: Public opinion, high casualties, and potential international backlash.
Hamas COG: Resistance and survival of leadership.
Critical Capabilities: Guerrilla tactics, tunnel networks, and propaganda machinery.
Critical Requirements: Sustained supply of weapons and resources, maintaining morale, and external support.
Critical Vulnerabilities: Leadership decapitation, loss of popular support, and depletion of resources.
**MLCOA:** Israel maintains military pressure in Gaza, focusing on degrading Hamas' capabilities. Limited humanitarian aid access persists. Low-intensity skirmishes along the border, with occasional rocket launches from Gaza. Watch for international diplomatic efforts to broker a ceasefire.
**MDCOA:** Escalation triggered by a significant Hamas attack or Israeli operation, leading to a full-scale conflict with potential regional spillover. Watch for Iranian or Hezbollah involvement.
**Confidence Level:** Medium. Factors like international pressure, internal Israeli politics, and Hamas' strategic shifts influence outcomes.
Will Israel-Gaza ceasefire hold through 2026?
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