🧠 Current Situation May 26, 2026
The situation in the South Caucasus has stabilized significantly following Azerbaijan's decisive 24-hour military operation in September 2023 that ended the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh. Over 100,000 ethnic Armenians fled to Armenia in the aftermath, completing the demographic transformation of the region. The self-declared republic formally dissolved on January 1, 2024.
Peace treaty negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan continue under EU mediation, with both sides expressing intent to reach a final agreement. Key outstanding issues include border demarcation in several contested sections, the fate of Armenian prisoners of war, and connectivity arrangements for the Zangezur Corridor — a proposed land route through Armenian territory connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave.
Armenia has pivoted strategically away from Russia, declining to participate in CSTO exercises and deepening ties with the EU and United States. This represents the most significant geopolitical realignment in the South Caucasus since independence. Russia's influence in the region has declined sharply, partly a consequence of its focus on Ukraine and the failure of its Karabakh peacekeeping mission.